CMP3 – Establishing the requirements for an integrated global carbon observing system and assessing its performance

This component will take the necessary next steps after the GEO Carbon Strategy Report publication in establishing the detailed requirements for an integrated global carbon observing system, made of different networks sampling the ocean, the land and the atmospheric carbon reservoirs. Requirements for carbon observing systems will be derived from key science questions. We will first establish clear accuracy targets and adequate spatial scales for measuring fluxes and pools over different ocean and land regions, considering short-term, seasonal, inter-annual and decadal time scales separately. The performances of different current networks will be established by using data and model results from Components 1 and 2.

The expected enhanced performances of future networks, and their fusion into an integrated global carbon observing system, will be estimated through synthetic data simulations. In a system approach where not only the data error and imperfect sampling, but also the model biases matter, we will account for model error using the results from Components 1 and 2, for data-driven and process driven (CCDAS) models, respectively. A specific task will be dedicated to assess the feasibility and provide notional requirements for measuring fossil fuel emissions, a question of high political and strategic importance. The potential for combining dense networks of in-situ radiocarbon surface stations with satellite imagery information will be studied for providing independent verification of fossil fuel emissions, globally and regionally. Lastly, nominal cost estimates for optimal network combinations as a function of prescribed accuracy targets will be derived which will be used in the cost-benefit analyses performed in Component 7.